Rates Went Up, Not Down: What the Past Year Cost Howard County Buyers

For most of the past two years, the assumption sitting underneath a lot of postponed moves has been that mortgage rates were about to come down. Wait for the cut, the reasoning went, and the same house gets cheaper to own.

The past twelve months answered that in the other direction. Rates are higher than they were a year ago, Howard County prices are higher than they were a year ago, and the buyers who waited are looking at a more expensive version of the purchase they postponed.

Where rates actually are

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.76% for the week ending September 10, 2026, up from 6.71% the week before. A year earlier the same survey read 6.35%.

The 15-year fixed moved along the same path, averaging 6.09% against 5.50% twelve months ago.

That is roughly four tenths of a point added to the 30-year over a year in which most forecasts called for the opposite.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

The Fed meets September 16, and a cut is not what is being priced

The Federal Open Market Committee meets September 15 and 16, with the policy statement and an updated set of economic projections due on the sixteenth. The federal funds target range going in is 3.50% to 3.75%.

Futures markets spent the weeks ahead of the meeting pricing a quarter-point increase rather than a cut, with CME's FedWatch tool putting those odds around two thirds. That would move the range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

Two things are worth keeping separate here. The Fed does not set mortgage rates, and a move in the federal funds rate does not produce a matching move in the 30-year fixed. What the meeting indicates is the direction of the conversation, and at the moment it is not about cuts.

Source: Federal Reserve, 2026 FOMC Meeting Calendar · Forbes, CME FedWatch odds ahead of the September meeting

What the past year did to a Howard County purchase

Put the rate move and the price move together and the effect gets easier to see.

The Howard County Association of REALTORS® reported a median sold price of $674,900 in July 2026, against $626,000 in July 2025. Financed at the prevailing 30-year rate in each of those months with 20% down, the two purchases compare like this:

• July 2025: $626,000 at 6.35%, $125,200 down, about $3,116 a month in principal and interest
• July 2026: $674,900 at 6.76%, $134,980 down, about $3,506 a month in principal and interest
• The monthly difference: about $389, or roughly $4,672 over a year
• The cash required at the table also rose by $9,780

Source: Howard County Association of REALTORS® Monthly Stats · Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

The same payment buys less house

The other way to read it is backward from the payment, which is how most buyers actually shop.

A household comfortable at about $3,116 a month in principal and interest could carry the county median at last July's rate. That same payment at 6.76% supports a loan near $480,000, which is a purchase price around $600,000 with 20% down.

That is roughly $75,000 less house for the same monthly commitment, over a period when the county median rose $48,900. Waiting did not hold the buyer in place. It moved them down a price tier.

Source: Howard County Association of REALTORS® Monthly Stats

What it means if you are buying

Higher rates thin the buyer pool, and a thinner pool is worth something. Competition is lighter now than it would be in a market where financing suddenly got cheaper and every postponed buyer returned at once. Sellers are more willing to discuss terms, closing help, and repairs, and the process is calmer than it was when homes drew a dozen offers in a weekend.

The rate is also the single term of the purchase you can revisit. If rates fall in 2027 or 2028, a refinance is available to you. The price is fixed at settlement, and nothing gives it back later.

None of that argues for buying a house you are not ready to buy. It argues against treating a forecast as the thing standing between you and a decision.

What it means if you are selling

Howard County's July figures do not describe a market in trouble:

• 371 homes sold, up from 307 in July 2025
• An average of 15 days on market
• An average sold price at 100.6% of the original list price
• 515 active listings, against 498 a year earlier

Source: Howard County Association of REALTORS® Monthly Stats

Homes priced to the comparable sales still sold quickly and at or above asking. What has narrowed is the buyer's tolerance for a stretch. When a payment costs what it costs today, an asking price set above what the comparables support usually does not get tested and negotiated down. It gets passed over, and the listing ages while better-priced competition goes under contract.

What actually moves mortgage rates

Anyone trying to read the next twelve months is better off watching the bond market than the Fed's policy rate. The 30-year fixed follows the 10-year Treasury yield and the inflation expectations priced into it, which is why mortgage rates sometimes move before a Fed decision and occasionally move against one.

That makes a rate forecast a forecast about inflation and the bond market, and those have been unreliable for several years now. A purchase timed to a number nobody can promise is exposed to being wrong for another year.

General information, not lending advice

The payment figures above are illustrations built from published survey averages and county-wide median prices. They are general information rather than lending advice, and they are not an offer of credit. Danielle is a real estate licensee, not a lender.

A median is a market-wide number rather than a particular house, and the figures cover principal and interest only. Property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance where it applies, and any HOA dues sit on top. Your actual rate depends on your credit, your down payment, the loan product, the property, and the day you lock it.

The past year makes a reasonable case against waiting for a number to show up. It does not make a case for rushing. What it supports is running your own figures against current rates and current comparable sales, then deciding from there. Danielle can put together what a specific home would actually cost you at today's numbers, and what your current home would realistically sell for, so the decision rests on arithmetic rather than a forecast.