The Fed Held Rates in October. Here's What It Means for Howard County Buyers and Sellers

The Federal Reserve left interest rates alone on October 28. That was the expected outcome, but the meeting still told us something useful: two members wanted another increase, and markets now expect one in December.

For Howard County buyers and sellers, the more immediate news is local. September's numbers show contract activity dropping sharply as mortgage rates climbed toward 7%, and inventory building to its highest September level in five years. Here is how the pieces fit together.

What the Fed did

The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 10–2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both preferred a quarter-point increase.

The statement described economic activity as "expanding at a strong pace" and said that "inflation remains elevated." That language comes one meeting after the Fed raised rates in September for the first time since July 2023.

The next meeting is December 8 and 9, with a new set of economic projections. Following Wednesday's decision, CME FedWatch put the odds of a quarter-point increase in December at 82.6%, up from 78.3% the day before, as reported by Fox Business.

Source: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026 · Federal Reserve, 2026 FOMC meeting calendar · Fox Business, Fed holds rates steady at October meeting

Where mortgage rates are now

Mortgage rates do not take their cue directly from the Fed's overnight rate, and this fall shows it. The 30-year fixed climbed through September and early October, then eased while the Fed was still deciding what to do:

• September 10: 6.76%
• September 17, the week after the Fed's increase: 6.95%
• October 8 and 15: 7.40%, the 2026 high so far
• October 22: 7.32%
• October 29: 7.24%, with the 15-year fixed at 6.60%

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.17%. So rates are about a point higher than last fall, and a little lower than they were two weeks ago.

What Howard County buyers did in September

The Howard County Association of REALTORS® September report shows what happened as rates pushed toward 7%:

• New contracts: 211, down 29% from August and down from 296 in September 2025
• Closed sales: 250, down 19.1% from 309 a year earlier
• Median sold price: $615,000, down 0.8% from $620,000 in September 2025
• Active listings: 587, up from 475 in August and 513 a year earlier
• Months of supply: 2.1, against a five-year September average of 1.4
• Average days on market: 29, up from 23 a year earlier
• Average sold price to original list price: 98.9%

Source: Howard County Association of REALTORS® Monthly Stats (September 2026)

Prices are holding roughly flat year over year. What changed is the pace. HCAR's contract ratio, which compares pending sales with active listings, fell to 0.42 from 0.65 in both August and September 2025, and sits well below the five-year September average of 0.94. A lower ratio means the market is moving toward buyers.

Two months of supply is still a tight market by most standards. For Howard County, where the five-year September average is 1.4, it is a noticeable shift.

What it costs to buy now versus a year ago

Here is the September median financed at each period's 30-year rate with 20% down:

• September 2025: $620,000 at 6.17%, about $3,028 a month in principal and interest
• Today: $615,000 at 7.24%, about $3,353 a month in principal and interest
• The difference: about $325 a month, even though the median price is slightly lower
• At the mid-October rate of 7.40%, the same purchase would have run about $3,407

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey · Howard County Association of REALTORS® Monthly Stats

Read the other way, the $3,028 payment that bought the median home last September now supports a purchase closer to $555,000. The rate move has cost buyers more than the slight price decline has saved them.

If you are buying

The rate is the weak spot. Most of everything else has moved in your favor. Active listings are higher than in any September of the past five years, fewer buyers are competing for each home, and sellers facing longer market times have more reason to talk about closing-cost help, repair credits, and rate buydowns.

If December brings another increase and mortgage rates follow, waiting for a better rate could mean a worse one. If rates do fall next year, a refinance is available. The negotiating room you have today may not be, because lower rates would bring back the buyers who are sitting out.

If you are selling

Homes are still selling close to asking. September's 98.9% sold-to-original-list ratio says well-priced homes are not taking big discounts. But you now have more competition, and buyers have time to compare.

That puts pricing and presentation ahead of everything else. A home priced off June's comparable sales is likely to sit while listings priced off September's go under contract. Average days on market already climbed to 29 in September, and the longer a listing sits, the more buyers wonder why.

A seller-paid rate buydown is worth discussing with your agent and the buyer's lender. At today's rates, lowering a buyer's payment can do more for an offer than the same amount taken off the price.

General information, not lending advice

The payment figures above are illustrations built from published survey averages and county-wide median prices. They are general information rather than lending advice, and they are not an offer of credit. Danielle is a real estate licensee, not a lender.

A median is a market-wide number rather than a particular house, and the figures cover principal and interest only. Property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance where it applies, and any HOA dues sit on top. Your actual rate depends on your credit, your down payment, the loan product, the property, and the day you lock it.

The Fed's next move is in December, and nobody can promise what mortgage rates will do between now and then. What you can know today is what a specific home costs at today's rate, and what your current home would sell for against today's competition. Danielle can run both numbers for your situation.